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A DECADE OF WAR

When and How the Russian War Against Ukraine Might End?

09.12.2024 - 11.12.2024

Thema

The year 2024 marks the tenth anniversary of the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine – the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War. The fighting is taking place on Ukrainian territory, although, as the Kremlin and experts say, it is Russia’s war against the West, the European peace order, its rules and values. In its fight against the invaders, Ukraine relies on support and weapons from its partners in the EU, the US and other countries, many of which are going through their own internal election cycles.

This conference aims to bring together leading experts and analysts on Ukraine for a frank and professional discussion to summarize the interim results of the conflict and predict possible scenarios for the development and end of Russian aggression against Ukraine. We will address key questions such as What is the balance of power as Ukraine and Russia enter the new year? How will the outcome of the US presidential election affect the course of the war? How long will the Russian-Ukrainian war last and what are the possible scenarios for its end? What can Germany do to help end the war and establish a lasting peace? What is the role of Ukrainian civil society inside and outside Ukraine in bringing victory closer? How can fatigue and the loss of a sense of urgency be avoided in a war that has changed life in Europe forever?

This conference follows the Chatham House Rule. It is a joint project of the German-Ukraine Bureau (DUB) and the Protestant Academy Loccum. The working language will be English. German-English interpretation will be provided, on request.

Medien

„Drei Fragen an …“ Nico Lange zu den Entwicklungen in Syrien nach Assads Sturz und den Auswirkungen dieser Ereignisse auf den Ukraine-Krieg. Herr Lange ist Senior Fellow bei der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz. Er stellte sich unseren Fragen am 9. Dezember 2024 am Rande dieser Tagung.

Programm

Montag, 09.12.2024
13:00 Uhr
Arrival and Check-in

14:00 Uhr
Words of Welcome

Inna NELLES, Co-Founder, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf
Mattia NELLES, Co-Founder & Executive Director, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf
Thomas MÜLLER-FÄRBER, Protestant Academy Loccum

14:15 Uhr
BLITZ SESSION (Part 1) | After the Election – How is the Situation on Ukrainian Affairs in the United States?

Volodymyr DUBOVYK, Senior Fellow, Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), Washington D.C.
Melinda HARING, Senior Advisor at Razom for Ukraine and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, Washington D.C.
Iulia-Sabina JOJA, Director, Black Sea Program, Middle East Institute, Washington D.C.

Moderation: Gregor SCHWUNG, Foreign Policy Editor, Die WELT, Berlin

--- followed by discussion with the participants ---

15:15 Uhr
Coffee & Cake

15:30 Uhr
BLITZ SESSION (Part 2) | Europe Calling – How is the Situation on Ukrainian Affairs in the UK and in the EU?

Rebecca HARMS, Vice Chair, European Centre for Press and Media Freedom and former Member of the European Parliament (2004-2019), Hannover
Nicolas TENZER, Chairman of the Center for Studies and Research on Political Decision (CERAP) and Senior Non-Resident Fellow at Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), Paris (online)
Robert PUTZBACH, Journalist, Politics Department, Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung (F.A.Z), Fankfurt a.M.
Moderation: Inna NELLES, Co-Founder, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf

--- followed by discussion with the participants ---

16:30 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

16:45 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION | Current Situation on the Battlefield and Military Foresight

Maria BERLINSKA, Military Expert, Former Director of the Aerial Reconnaissance Support Center and Head of Victory Drones, Kyiv (online)
Nico LANGE, Senior Fellow, Munich Security Conference, Berlin
Ilja PONOMARENKO, Independent Ukrainian War Reporter and Author of “I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime” (Bloomsbury 2024) Kyiv
Victoria VDOVYCHENKO, Program Director for Security Studies at the Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) and Joint Programme Leader at Cambridge University’s Center for Geopolitics, Kyiv/Cambridge

Moderation: Thomas MÜLLER-FÄRBER, Protestant Academy Loccum

18:30 Uhr
Dinner

19:30 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION | Victory or Compromise? How to End the War and Ensure Sustainable Peace in Europe?

Olena HALUSHKA, Co-Founder of International Centre for Ukrainian Victory (ICUV) and Board Member at Anti-Corruption Action Center, Kyiv (online)
Wilfried JILGE, Senior Adviser, Integrated Response Hub for Ukraine at the Stabilization Platform and Associate Fellow of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign (DGAP), Berlin
Valerii PEKAR, Co-Founder, „The New Country” Civic Platform, Kyiv (online)
Anastasia RODI, Journalist, TAZ, Berlin
Brian WHITMORE, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council and Assistant Professor of Practice, University of Texas-Arlington

Moderation: Mattia NELLES, Co-Founder & Executive Director, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf

21:00 Uhr
Informal Get Together

Dienstag, 10.12.2024
08:30 Uhr
Breakfast

09:15 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION | From Reforms and EU Integration to Readiness for Negotiations – What do Ukrainians want?

Yevhen HLIBOVYTSKY, Head of Frontier Institute and Lecturer at the Ukrainian Catholic University, Kyiv (online)
Tetiana SHEVCHUK, Anti-Corruption Action Centre and International Center for Ukrainian Victory, Kyiv
Olga TOKARIUK, Senior Analyst, Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), London (online)
Maria ZOLKINA, Research Fellow, Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics and head of Regional Security & Conflict Studies at Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv/London

Moderation: Inna NELLES, Co-Founder, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf

10:45 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

11:00 Uhr
PANEL DISCUSSION | Was the “Zeitenwende” Enough? Outlook on Germany’s Future Ukraine Policy

Tilman KUBAN, MdB (CDU), Member of the Committee on the Affairs of the European Union and Rapporteur for Ukraine, Deutscher Bundestag Berlin/Hannover
Ljudmyla MELNYK, Head of the Ukraine Programme, Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP), Berlin
Johannes SCHRAPS, MdB (SPD), Member of the European Committee, Deutscher Bundestag and Deputy-Chair of the German-Ukrainian Parliamentarian Group, Berlin/Bad Pyrmont
Christian SCHWEPPE, investigative journalist and author of the book „Zeiten ohne Wende“ (C.H. Beck 2024), Berlin
Robin WAGENER, Special Envoy for the Cooperation with the Civil Society within the Eastern Partnership at the German Foreign Office, Member of Parliament (Greens), Berlin/Bad Salzuflen

Moderation: Mattia NELLES, Co-Founder & Executive Director, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf

12:30 Uhr
Lunch

14:00 Uhr
FISHBOWL DISCUSSION | Activism Without Borders – The Role of Civil Society in Bringing Victory Closer

Julia CHENUSHA, CEO, Blau-Gelbes Kreuz e.V., Köln
Francois GRUNEWALD, Co-Founder, Group URD, Paris (online)
Nataliya PRYHORNYTSKA, Co-founder and Board Member, Open Platform and Alliance of Ukrainian Organizations, Berlin
Eva YAKUBOVSKA, Chief Project Manager and Board Member, Vitsche, Berlin

Moderation: Tetiana LOPASHCHUK, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf

15:30 Uhr
Coffee & Cake

16:00 Uhr
BREAKOUT SESSION | What Can be Done to Increase Support for Ukraine?

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WORKING GROUP 1 – The Cultural Sphere

Moderation: Kateryna RIETZ-RAKUL, Head, Ukrainian Institute in Germany, Berlin

-
WORKING GROUP 2 – Humanitarian Sphere

Moderation: Igor MITCHNIK, First Executive Director, Austausch e.V., Berlin

-
WORKING GROUP 3 – The Sphere of Political Advocacy

Moderation: Daria MALLING, Project Manager, LibMod (Zentrum Liberale Moderne), Berlin

-
WORKING GROUP 4 – Security Guaranties

Moderation: Mattia NELLES, Co-Founders & Executive Director, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf

18:30 Uhr
Dinner

19:30 Uhr
LITERARY SALON | Writing in and about War

Ilja PONOMARENKO, Independent Ukrainian War Reporter and Author of the Book “I Will Show You How It Was: The Story of Wartime” (Bloomsbury 2024) Kyiv

Moderation: Kateryna RIETZ-RAKUL, Head, Ukrainian Institute in Germany, Berlin

21:00 Uhr
Informal Get Together

Mittwoch, 11.12.2024
08:30 Uhr
Breakfast

09:30 Uhr
PLENARY DISCUSSION | Presentation and Discussion of the Breakout Session’s Results

10:45 Uhr
Coffee & Tea Break

11:00 Uhr
CONCLUDING PANEL | Where Is the Hope? Outlook of 2025 and a Discussion About Desired and Realistic Futures

Rémi DUFLOT, Deputy Head, The Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine, Brussels/Kyiv
Olexiy HARAN, Research Director of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Professor of Comparative Politics at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, Kyiv (online)
Yevhen HLIBOVYTSKY, Head of Frontier Institute and Lecturer at the Ukrainian Catholic University, Kyiv (online)
Brian WHITMORE, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council and Assistant Professor of Practice, University of Texas-Arlington

Moderation: Thomas MÜLLER-FÄRBER, Protestant Academy Loccum

12:15 Uhr
Wrap-Up & Words of Farwell

Inna NELLES, Co-Founder, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf
Mattia NELLES, Co-Founder & Executive Director, German-Ukrainian Bureau, Düsseldorf
Thomas MÜLLER-FÄRBER, Protestant Academy Loccum

12:30 Uhr
Farewell Lunch

12:50 Uhr
Bus Shuttle to Wunstorf train station